Gillen Will Not Win NY-04 By 10 to 15 Points

Democrat Laura Gillen will not win the 2026 NY-04 House election by between 10 and 15 percentage points on November 3, 2026. Her roughly two point 2024 win will not expand to double digits because the district's rightward movement among swing voters and Jeanine Driscoll's focus on local property ta…