Wagner will fall short of a 15% to 18% win

Ann Wagner will not win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 15% to 18% on November 3, 2026. Even as a seven-term incumbent since 2013 who holds a $4.2 million fundraising advantage over Frederick Wellman, Wagner will finish outside the 15% to 18% bracket. The R+6/R+7 district will produce a margin tha…