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The Republican will fall short of a 15 to 20 point rout on November 3, 2026. Hallie Shoffner's surge in the Hendrix College poll of August 11-12 will matter, with Shoffner showing 47% to Cotton's 44% and a 4.7% margin of error, and her campaign will be buoyed by the momentum that produced a 78.3% M…