Murphy will fail to win NC-03 by 9 to 12 points

Greg Murphy will not win the 2026 NC-03 House race by 9 to 12 percentage points. Even with the district rated R+6 after the 2025 redistricting that added Wayne, Wilson, Greene, and Lenoir counties and with fundraising generally favoring Murphy, the final margin will fall outside the 9 to 12 point b…