Lula will fall short of 44% of valid vote

Lula will finish with less than 44% of valid votes in the October 4, 2026 first round. The CNT/MDA poll released on September 15, 2026 put Lula at 40.5% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30.4%, and that polling snapshot will precede Lula’s shortfall. The result will push the race toward the October 2…