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The Democratic candidate will not win MA-09 by 20 to 25 percent on November 3, 2026. Incumbent William Keating, who was first elected in 2010, won MA-09 by 13.0% in 2024 and that prior margin and the August 30, 2026 national generic of Democrats at +6.4% will not translate into a 20 to 25 point blo…