Alford will fail to win MO-04 by 30 points

Mark Alford will not win the 2026 MO-04 House race by 30 percentage points or more, producing a far tighter general election on November 3. Although Alford crushed his August 4 Republican primary with 77.7 percent, redistricting pushed the Cook PVI from R+23 to R+10 and the 4th District now include…