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Flávio Bolsonaro will not win the second round on October 25, 2026 by between 2 and 4 percentage points, because polls show divergent margins that can push the final gap outside that band. The UOL aggregator has Bolsonaro at 51.3% and Lula at 48.7% for a 2.6 point lead, but BTG/Nexus recorded 50.3%…